I started a new job this week, and my new team has a weekly lottery pool that everyone in the team is part of. In the past I would’ve joined the lottery pool without hesitation, however this time I decided to do something different.
The Lottery Syndicate (or Lottery Pool as I like to refer them them)
I’ve been involved with a few lottery pools in previous jobs, and I actually ran one after the previous person left. Lottery pools for those who aren’t familiar are where a group of people pool their money together each week / pay period and buy a lottery ticket (or tickets). The aim of the pool is that by pooling your money together you can purchase ‘better’ tickets (e.g. tickets that have a better chance of winning). According to some sources 1 in 5 jackpots are won by lottery pools and therefore lottery pools are pretty popular (I’m a little hesitant to believe such a stat).
My Work Lottery Pool
My work Lottery Pool is pretty straight forward its a $5 weekly payment to the pool of approximately 20 people. The pool of funds approx. $100 a week is then used to purchase a lottery ticket of that price.
If we win over a certain amount of money (usually over $200) this is split between everyone equally otherwise if it’s less than this amount we will use the funds to buy an even better ticket than usual.
I calculated that over the next year my personal contribution to the lottery pool would be $260. Over the years I’ve been part of a lottery pool I have won zero dollars so working on this assumption, and the current statistical likelihood of winning the lottery its a pretty safe bet that I’m going to see zero return (and lose my capital as well) if I join the work lottery pool.
Investing in Crypto
I’m a slow and steady investor who doesn’t enjoy a lot of volatility, and before this week I have never considered investing in cryptocurrency. However as I pondered the lottery pool and the likelihood of ever winning my mind thought about how I could better use that $260 a year. My mind initially thought of putting extra into my micro investments, but then I thought about crypto.
You have to have been living under a rock if you haven’t read about the crazy rise of Bitcoin over the last few years (and other Crypto Currency). I decided to find a calculator to run some calculations on what would happen if I put $260 into Bitcoin one year ago (the $260 representing a year of lottery pool contributions).
The screenshot below absolutely shocked me!!!!
If I invested $260 into Bitcoin a year ago I would have almost $2500 today (this is an 840% return).
Please note: Historical returns are not a predictor of future returns, and all investing comes with risk.
Gambling vs Crypto
The bitcoin investment return numbers shocked me to my core. The numbers made me realise that investing in crypto has a far better chance of me coming out with anything then joining a lotto pool (this is even considering the fact that crypto in the past has had fluctuations of -70%).
Although crypto is not considered gambling I view it as close to gambling as it gets when it comes to investing (it’s not for the faint hearted).
So from here on in I’m officially a very unlikely crypto investor, who is investing ‘lotto’ money that I was likely going to lose anyway.
Feel free to hit me up in the comments and share your reasons for investing in crypto.
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Frank on FIRE 